Is this America’s final decade as a world superpower? A decade ago I started writing an Imminent dangers to America series. I wrote the first five articles in that series in 2006. I added another article in 2008, and the last article was written in 2012. All of the seven articles give a rating on a scale of 1 to 10 about the likelihood of the danger to America playing out before 2025.
The likelihood of at least one of those dangers playing out by 2025 was extremely high in my estimation. Since I started that series, one decade has now passed. Do I therefore now believe that this is America’s final decade as a superpower, or do I think the dangers to America that I wrote about have since decreased?
Are these imminent dangers to America still valid and are the ratings I gave on each of them playing out before 2025 still what I believe? I will briefly revisit the seven imminent dangers that I warned about in the series and give my latest views. (The dangers in the series are not listed in the order of the degree of danger to America. They are listed in the order that I wrote them.)
Imminent Danger # 1 – Nuclear Electromagnetic Pulse attack (EMP) – I gave it a 7 out of 10.
Back in 2006 astute people were thinking that Russian nuclear weapons might be available for the right price. The theory was that North Korea, Iran or terrorist could obtain these nuclear weapons and launch one or more of these nukes from a cargo ship offshore using a low-cost accessible Scud missile and cause an EMP over the United States. The EMP could take down America’s electrical grid, destroy electronics, and make critical infrastructures collapse. In hindsight, the Russian nuclear weapons might not have been available.
Scuds would not be needed today for North Korea or Iran to attempt an EMP attack on the United States today, although terrorists still might use Scuds. Both Iran and North Korea have developed long-range ballistic missiles and are developing ICBM’s. Both of these rogue nations are developing nuclear weapons programs that will have the missile capability to put nuclear weapons over the United States.
Russia and China have advanced EMP weapons capability but they are rational nations. They are not cultish nations led by deranged tyrants claiming to possess divine authority. If Russia or China launched an EMP attack on America, it would occur in the first phase of all out war. I list a WMD attack by Russia or China in my Imminent Danger # 5 article. Therefore, I will limit my assessment here of an EMP attack to Iran, North Korea, and terrorists. (If Islamic radicals gain control of the nuclear weapons in Pakistan, nuclear terrorism becomes very possible.)
I still think an EMP attack will be attempted on America before 2025. However, the degree of success any EMP attack would have to cripple America sufficiently enough to remover her as a world superpower would be the worst case scenario of such an attack. What damage would actually occur is based on many factors that are unknowable before the fact..
Over the past decade almost nothing was done to harden America’s electrical grid or other critical infrastructures. Over the past decade North Korea and Iran have developed independent means to carry out an EMP attack. And over the past decade Pakistan is becoming more radical. On the other hand, we probably have slightly better missile defense and intelligence then we had a decade ago.
After considering all these things, I think the likelihood of an EMP attack being attempted on America before 2025 is about 8 on a scale of 1 to 10, but the likelihood of it being successful and crippling America and making this America’s final decade as a superpower is about 50/50. That is assuming that no one preemptively takes out the nuclear capabilities of North Korea, Iran and Pakistan. If that should happen, the threat of a nuclear EMP attack on America occurring before 2025 would hardly exist at all.
Imminent Danger #2 – Massive oil disruptions – I gave it a 6.
What a difference a decade can make on world oil supplies. Fracking has changed the equation for America since 2006. Even so, the danger of massive oil disruptions due to a major war in the Middle East has become much worse. Oil disruptions would no longer bring catastrophic shortages of oil to the United States. However, a major disruption would increase the price of oil in the world dramatically and bring about a world economic collapse.
With war expanding between Sunnis and Shiites in the Middle East, I still think there is better than a fifty-fifty chance of there being massive oil disruptions before 2025. Whether that would mean America’s final decade as a superpower arrives, or not, depends upon internal events in America after the resulting world economic collapse. Those dangers are written about in Imminent Danger #3 and #6.
Imminent Danger #3 – Total economic collapse – I gave it a 9.
It is amazing how long central bankers prove that they can kick the debt can down the road using smoke and mirrors. However, the economic collapse caused by excessive debt is still almost certainly coming before 2025. It now won’t just be the United States that collapses, it will be the whole world economic system.
Again, the effect of such an economic collapse in America is explained in the Imminent Danger #6 article. I still think economic collapse still rates a 9. It almost certainly will occur by 2025. Economic collapse and related civil upheavals very well could be the top reason that this will be America’s final decade as a world superpower.
Imminent Danger #4 – Coordinated nuclear terrorist attack – I gave is a 7.
We know that terrorists have tried to get nuclear materials on the black market. They might get the whole nuclear package from Pakistan or Iran in the near future. They might have even acquired one or more small nuclear devices already. If so, getting these nuclear devices into our cities with ongoing globalist open borders policies would not be difficult. The nuclear devices already might exist in American cities awaiting some order.
I still believe that terrorists will attempt some kind of nuclear attack on America by 2025. The rating of 7 might even be a bit low if America keeps pussyfooting around with terrorists and appeasing terrorist sponsoring nations. As I explain in this article, the great danger to America as a nation is not the physical damage that small nuclear expositions or dirty bombs could cause. The danger to America is the psychological reaction and overreaction to such an attack. The tyranny and the wars that would come as a result of any nuclear terrorist attack within America is what would destroy America.
Imminent Danger #5 – WMD attack on U.S. by Russia or China – I gave it a 3.
Both nations are major nuclear super powers that are now rapidly expanding and modernizing their nuclear capability. Russia and China have been getting more assertive and are getting more belligerent toward neighbors that are American allies. It is getting more likely that we will be drawn into a war with one or both nations by 2025. I now think the likelihood of an attack on America by either Russia or China before 2025 is about 50/50. It becomes more like 100 percent by 2035 unless America for some reason totally withdraws from the world.
Imminent Danger #6 – Break up of The United States of America and civil upheavals – I gave it an 8.
Think of the possibility of a Hillary Clinton Presidency with a socialist Supreme Court. How would Christians and Conservatives react to cultural Marxism and the pagan worldview that would be forced on them? Even the Bill of Rights would be redefined. They would attempt to limit free speech to PC speech. They would muzzle Christianity. And they would attempt to take away guns. On the other hand, think of the possibility of a Ted Cruz and a conservative Supreme Court. How do you think urban government dependents and immoral people would react to any return to Christian values and the end of the socialist state that enables their immoral covetous lifestyles? As I said in my article:
The real point is not exactly how this breakup might happen. The point is that America is becoming increasing polarized between liberals and conservatives, religious and irreligious, law abiders and criminals, police and citizens, educators and parents, tax payers and deadbeats, control freaks and freedom lovers, perverts and non perverts etc. If this polarization of America continues to increase, we will either have a union break up or we will soon be living under martial law.
I still give an 8 to the break up of the United States by 2025. A nation so divided as ours cannot stand. The breaking up of the United States into smaller weaker Unions would mark the end of America’s final decade as a world superpower.
Imminent Danger #7 – Cyber attack – In 2012 I said it approaches 10 if the government does little or nothing.
There have been cyber attacks since I wrote that article and there will be worse ones in the future. The real issue is will cyber attackers be able to take down any of our vital infrastructures systems like our electrical grid for an extended period? If it could, that would bring about danger #6.
I suggested in that 2012 article:
Another way to help achieve cyber security is to offer substantial monetary rewards to hackers that find weakness in our infrastructure systems. Of course, these hackers will first have to be willing to be licensed to probe our vital infrastructure systems. The U.S. has some of the most capable computer hackers in the world. Enticing these people to do something productive with their skills seems quite appropriate. They need to continually probe our infrastructure systems like we are the enemy, and identify and report cyber security vulnerabilities.
I just read that Defense Secretary Ash Carter came to the same conclusion and intends to license hackers to probe America’s security systems. I think if this goes beyond being a pilot project and expands to all of our vital infrastructure it will greatly enhance cyber security in America.
The question then is will the security come soon enough to stop massive cyber attacks that would bring down our infrastructure before 2025? I think that depends on who is doing the attacking and how fast we secure our computerized systems against the worst threats. I give it 50/50 at best.
As you see, I believe America’s final decade as a superpower has arrived. I believe by 2025 the USA either will no longer exist as a nation, or it will be a much weaker nation. So what do you think?