Will Israel attack Iran in early to mid October?

This is an interesting and somewhat different perspective on when Israel might attack Iran. The theory is that if the hardliner Mofaz wins in the Kadima Party in mid to late September he might reach across to the Likud party and bring in hardliner Benjamin Netenyahu as prime minister. Then the theory goes that it would be best for Israel to attack Iran before the U.S. election in November so as to not to antagonize a President-elect Obama (they all think he is going to win if there is no war) with a strike between the time he wins the election and takes office in January.

I would not think that Israel would want to strike Iran right before our election so a reasonable date would be around October 1-15 which just happens to be the Jewish fall holiday season this year. We will see what happens? My own opinion is that I think this theory makes more sense than the conventional wisdom that says Israel will attack Iran between the U.S. election and Obama taking office (if he should win).

FrontPage Magazine

THE most important primary for our 2008 election may be yet to come - the Kadima Party primary in Israel in mid or late September. It pits liberal-leaning Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni against hardliner and former Army Chief of Staff Shaul Mofaz. (Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is expected to sit out the contest and concentrate on staying out of jail.)

The polls are neck and neck; in the most recent, Livni’s once-formidable lead has shrunk to 2 points. Hanging over the battle is the Iranian nuclear program.

Mofaz might not want to wait for our election. Why risk antagonizing a President-elect Obama by taking military action that he might vigorously oppose? If Obama, having won, were to counsel patience, what Israeli prime minister could ignore him?

Before the US election, on the other hand, Obama might be reluctant to take a position - and the Israelis need feel no compulsion to conform to any advice from a man who isn’t yet be president-elect.

Surely, an Israeli attack on Iran would bring a sharp and instant response from Iran and from its satellites, Syria, Hamas and Hezbollah, as well as its pawns in Iraq. It would presage war in Gaza, Lebanon and the West Bank along with an air war of Israeli missiles and bombers against Iranian missiles.

Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and the Gulf states would criticize Israel in public but probably breathe a sign of relief in private that Iran’s nuclear ambitions were thwarted or at least postponed.

The ensuing crisis would probably militate in McCain’s favor if it erupted before the US election.