Does the Bush lame duck meeting with Israel signal an Israeli attack on Iran before Obama’s inauguration?
Michael Evans suggests that the only reason for the lame duck prime minister of Israel and the lame duck president of the U.S. to be meeting at this time it to prepare for an attack on Iran prior to the inauguration of President elect Barak Obama. There always is a chance that there could be something to that speculation although I think Obama would have to be briefed and approve of it or Israel will have even greater problems with the Obama administration.
There is a small chance Obama advisors could tell him to approve this to give him some breathing room before he really has to deal with a nuclear Iran. He would still have to deal with it because any Israel strike would be limited and would only delay the Iran nuclear program one to five years depending on the amount of damage.
I am not at all certain that Evans is reading this right. The meeting could be just to make sure there will not be a strike on Iran by Israel during this transition period and on discussion points on how the next administrations should go forward.
Any attack on Iran would certainly open a new can of worms that would take all the time of the next administrations while they are in the middle of a financial crises. Hezbollah and their 42,000 rockets would have to be dealt with and I do not think Israel or the U.S. are ready to deal with the consequences that would bring at this time.
While it is true that Obama and his administration will attempt to handcuff Israel after Obama takes office. If Benjamin Netanyahu is elected as prime minister of Israel he is not going to be anyone’s patsy. Israel will do what Israel thinks it needs to do. Now that Iran has enough enriched uranium for one bomb (should then go forward to build one) and is likely to be able to produce enough material for two to three more bombs within a year the window on Iran is indeed short. Certainly Iran will have to agree to international inspections of their facilities to make sure they are not building bombs or they will be hit within two years. The real question is how much more development and know how will Israel allow Iran to obtain before it acts. Facilities can be destroyed but once they have acquired the know how, the nuclear weapons program can be rebuilt rapidly.
When considering just the nuclear program alone the earlier Iran is hit the better but when dealing with political realities of the Middle East a war that occurs between the transfer of administrations is a whole other matter. If a war were to break out the Israel elections would not even take place on schedule.
There is also the issue of world oil prices and the consequences to the world economy that is in crises. Any strike on Iran would raise oil prices dramatically. That might end some of the deflation in the world in the short term but it will make things even worse in the long term.
Therefore, It is my opinion that Israel will not strike Iran prior to the inauguration of President-elect Barack Obama. If someone could show a creditable movement to increase U.S air strength in the gulf it might be more believable. I also do not believe that Israeli use of low yield nuclear weapons to stop nuclear weapon development by Iran is at all likely. The international consequences would be totally unacceptable.
We will not have long to find out if Evens is right or wrong since all we have left is a five week window.
Israelis meet with Bush on Iran attack
Israelis meet with Bush on Iran attack
Posted: November 26, 2008
1:00 am Eastern© 2008
Why would a prime minister who has resigned and is leaving office in eight weeks meet with a lame-duck president who is also leaving office in eight weeks?
Ehud Olmert resigned as prime minister on Sept. 21, 2008. He currently fills the seat until general elections take place on Feb. 10, 2009. There is no reason for a lame-duck president and an equally lame-duck prime minister to meet except to pursue the above-stated purpose.
Time magazine quoted an “unnamed Israeli source at the Defense Ministry” as having said, “We have been warned off.” It has been hinted in the past by IDF officials that Israel may launch a pre-emptive strike on nuclear facilities in Iran prior to the Jan. 20, 2009 inauguration of President-elect Barack Obama. No Israel Defense Forces general would ever say that unless it were officially approved. Why did he say it? So when Israel attacks, the U.S. will not be blamed.
Because of the fact that Iran has just announced that enough centrifuges are online to build an atomic bomb, Israel feels that the emergency is now. Former Israel Chief of Staff Moshe Ya’alon, who endorsed my book “Showdown with Nuclear Iran,” calling it the “most extensive book on the subject,” has told me that under no circumstance would Israel hold back once Iran has enough centrifuges to build the bomb. Israel knows Obama will not allow them to attack once he takes office. The only way they can attack is to do so before the inauguration, while they have the support of George Bush.
On Monday, Vice President Cheney and Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice also met with Olmert. The secular media has reported that these were social visits only. I assure you that vice presidents and secretaries of state did not have private meetings for social purposes only.Ehud Olmert met Secretary of State Rice for breakfast at Blair House and also held private, strategic meetings with Dick Cheney. The prime minister came seeking permission from George Bush to attack Iran’s nuclear reactors during the next six weeks prior to President-elect Obama’s inauguration, and most likely in December.
In retaliation for a military strike on Iran, Hezbollah would undoubtedly launch rocket attacks on Israel from Lebanon. Hamas would probably launch rocket attacks from the Gaza. We might even see a resumption of the suicide bombers penetrating Israel’s cities.
Defense Minister Ehud Barak has stated that Hezbollah tripled its arms strength following the 2006 war in Lebanon. According to Barak, the Iranian proxy now has some 42,000 rockets, some with the capability of striking Ashkelon, Yerucham and Dimona (Israel’s nuclear sites.)
Even if the United States did not directly participate in an Israeli air strike on Iran, we would have to allow Israeli jets airspace rights over Iraq. This would be enough to argue that America was “complicit” in an Israeli air attack on Iran. The U.S. might also have to refuel Israeli jets involved in an air strike on Iran. The newest fighters in Israel’s attack force are the Lockheed-Martin manufactured F-16I Soufa (”Storm”) fighters. The second mainstay of the IAF is the 1990s Boeing-built (originally McDonnell Douglas) F-15I Ra’am (”Eagle”) fighter planes. Both aircraft have a strike radius that should extend to targets in Iran without having to be refueled.
A showdown with a nuclear Iran is imminent. Though we might all wish for the crisis to pass, I fear the moment is at hand where the reality of a nuclear-armed Iran is inevitably upon us all. I pray that we get through the coming test with distinction. I pray that the crisis passes, and that Israel continues to thrive and the United States of America continues to be strong.